Sharing a very informative research paper that seeks to formally and methodically compare Generative AI's capabilities against a long list of occupations to determine how AI will impact employment and job security.
There are many jobs where people will need protection from the incursion of AI. Not to try and permanently disable AI, but to not allow the speed of AI's evolution to destroy paid human work.
Corporations will flock to AI once it's clear how AI can reduce overheads. Apart from regulated protections like redundancy, the AI juggernaut will steamroll employment unless governments enact protections.
You can broadly think of the likely impact in terms of AIs ability to disintermediate people whose job primarily involves the dissemination of knowledge, aka, an expert. There are plenty of jobs in this category, including the professions of teaching, the practice of law, and accounting.
I joked in a LinkedIn Post that ChatGPT could disintermediate parents. Except it's no joke and entirely feasible. Why will a kid go find a parent and wait patiently to be invited to speak when the kid can get an instant, more complete, and likely perfectly good answer from ChatGPT?
An example of disintermediation in the legal profession is explained below the quoted text.
The following quote is from the research paper. It's also enclosed here.
"Artificial Intelligence (AI) will likely affect the economy in many ways, potentially boosting economic growth and changing the way people work and play. The effect of AI on work will likely be multi-faceted. In some cases, AI may substitute for work previously done by humans, and in other cases AI may complement work done by humans. The effect on work will likely also vary across industries.
A group of university researchers has created the AI Occupational Exposure (AIOE) measure and used this measure to identify which occupations, industries and geographies are most exposed to AI. In this paper, we describe how the AIOE approach can be adapted to account for the recent advancement of language modeling.
The research builds on and extends a set of papers that provide systematic methodologies for studying how AI affects occupations.
The AIOE measure was constructed by linking 10 AI applications (abstract strategy games, real- time video games, image recognition, visual question answering, image generation, reading comprehension, language modeling, translation, speech recognition, and instrumental track recognition) to 52 human abilities (e.g., oral comprehension, oral expression, inductive reasoning, arm-hand steadiness, etc) using a crowd-sourced matrix that indicates the level of relatedness between each AI application and human ability."
The research headline states, "How will Language Modelers like ChatGPT Affect Occupations and Industries?".
Based on the modeling, at least 140 distinct job categories are threatened by AI systems like ChatGPT. I calculate that every job down to an AIOE of 1.106 on page 17 of the report is threatened and will most likely vanish or be significantly changed or constrained.
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Here's a typical example of ChatGPT replacing expensive advice from a professional expert, in this case, a lawyer.
Now the lawyer will respond that the advice is simplistic and may even contain errors, which might be true; however, the AI will be developing intelligence and knowledge every second of every day it operates.
Many people say ChatGPT is still formative and immature, and we can expect orders of magnitude improvements during just 2023, let alone the years to come.
So, consider this example where I need some introductory advice about forming a partnership. I'm considering going into a business as an equal partner, and I want some initial advice to understand what's important to protect my interests.
Let's assume I'm not experienced in legal matters and need some basic advice before spending money with a lawyer.
IMHO, this is extremely helpful to me as a legal novice, and I feel confident that the logic of the answers is sound.
It's proof of the threat to the legal profession.
Here's the back-and-forth with ChatGPT:
Q: what is the best way to legally protect my interests in a business partnership
A: Protecting your interests in a business partnership is important to ensure that your rights and obligations are clearly defined and enforced. Here are some ways to legally protect your interests in a business partnership:
Draft a comprehensive partnership agreement: A partnership agreement is a legal document that outlines the rights and responsibilities of each partner, including profit sharing, decision-making, and dispute resolution. It is important to have a partnership agreement in place that clearly defines the terms of the partnership, and to have it reviewed by a lawyer to ensure that it is legally binding and enforceable.
Register the partnership: Depending on your jurisdiction, you may be required to register your partnership with the government. This will help establish the legal existence of the partnership and provide a record of its ownership and management.
Establish clear roles and responsibilities: Clearly defining each partner's roles and responsibilities can help prevent disputes and misunderstandings. This can be done in the partnership agreement, or in a separate document outlining each partner's duties and obligations.
Maintain accurate records: Keeping accurate records of financial transactions, agreements, and other important documents can help protect your interests and ensure that you have a clear record of the partnership's activities.
Consider obtaining insurance: Depending on the nature of the business, it may be beneficial to obtain liability insurance or other types of insurance to protect against unexpected events or accidents.
Consult with a lawyer: A lawyer with experience in business partnerships can provide valuable guidance and advice on how to protect your interests, and can help ensure that your partnership agreement and other legal documents are properly drafted and executed.
Overall, the key to protecting your interests in a business partnership is to establish clear and enforceable agreements, maintain accurate records, and seek professional advice when necessary.
Q: could you provide an example of a partnership agreement?
A: Sure, here is an example of a partnership agreement:
PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT
This Partnership Agreement ("Agreement") is made and entered into on [DATE], by and between [PARTNER NAME], with a mailing address of [ADDRESS], ("Partner A"), and [PARTNER NAME], with a mailing address of [ADDRESS], ("Partner B") collectively referred to as "Partners".
PURPOSE: The purpose of this partnership is to [ENTER PURPOSE].
CONTRIBUTIONS: Partner A shall contribute [ENTER CONTRIBUTION], and Partner B shall contribute [ENTER CONTRIBUTION] towards the purpose of the partnership. Any additional contributions made by either partner shall be agreed upon in writing by both parties.
PROFIT AND LOSS: The partners shall share the profits and losses of the partnership equally.
MANAGEMENT: The partners shall manage the business jointly and shall have equal decision-making authority. Any decisions requiring a vote shall require the agreement of both partners.
TERM: The partnership shall commence on [DATE] and shall continue until terminated by either partner upon [ENTER TERMINATION CLAUSE].
DISSOLUTION: Upon the dissolution of the partnership, the partners shall equally divide any remaining assets or liabilities of the partnership.
CONFIDENTIALITY: The partners agree to keep confidential any information related to the business of the partnership and shall not disclose such information to any third party without the consent of both partners.
DISPUTE RESOLUTION: Any disputes arising out of or related to this Agreement shall be resolved through arbitration in accordance with the rules of [ENTER ARBITRATION RULES] in [ENTER CITY AND STATE].
GOVERNING LAW: This Agreement shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of [ENTER STATE].
AMENDMENTS: This Agreement may only be amended or modified by written agreement signed by both partners.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, the parties have executed this Agreement as of the date first written above.
Partner A - [PRINT NAME] - [SIGNATURE]
Partner B - [PRINT NAME] - [SIGNATURE]
Q: if one partner wanted to leave the partnership, what is the best way to value the business so one partner could buy the other partner's shares?
A: Valuing a business when one partner wants to leave the partnership can be a complex process, but there are several methods that can be used to determine a fair price for the departing partner's shares. Here are some common approaches:
Asset valuation: This method involves calculating the total value of the company's assets and subtracting its liabilities to arrive at the net asset value. This approach is commonly used for asset-intensive businesses such as real estate or manufacturing.
Earnings-based valuation: This method involves calculating the company's future earnings potential based on past performance and market conditions. This approach is commonly used for service-based businesses such as consulting or accounting.
Market-based valuation: This method involves comparing the company's financial performance and other relevant factors to similar businesses in the same industry. This approach is commonly used for businesses that have a large number of comparable competitors.
Once the valuation method has been selected, the partners should agree on an independent appraiser to conduct the valuation and determine a fair market value for the business. Once the fair market value has been established, the remaining partner can buy out the departing partner's shares at the agreed-upon price.
It is important to note that the process of valuing a business can be complex and may require the assistance of a professional appraiser or financial advisor. It is recommended to consult with a lawyer or accountant to ensure that the valuation process is conducted fairly and in accordance with any legal requirements or agreements between the partners.
~ENDS~
This article is entirely my own work other than the research paper text and the answers from ChatGPT.
Written by SEVENmile Ltd Founder and CEO, Greg Twemlow